The Physics of Trust
In closed systems, these are the main variables that affect trust
1. Interest Alignment
"If your win is my win, I can trust you."
Trust fundamentally depends on aligned incentives. When two parties benefit from each other's success, trust naturally emerges. This principle is rooted in game theory and evolutionary biology—cooperation is sustainable when it serves both parties' interests.
Notes
- Coupled incentives create trust
- Zero-sum situations destroy trust
- Shared success is more powerful than individual gain
- Long-term alignment matters more than short-term gains
2. Predictability
"If I can model you, I can trust you."
Trust requires predictability—the ability to anticipate another's behavior based on past actions and stated intentions. Without consistency or logical patterns in behavior, trust becomes impossible.
Notes
- Consistency (that enables Reliability) vs Randomness in behavior
- Logical patterns enable prediction
- Reliability is more valuable than occasional brilliance
3. Clarity
"If I can understand you, I can trust you."
Trust depends on clarity and transparency. When intentions, behaviors, and communication are clear and understandable, trust can flourish. Opacity, ambiguity, and complexity breed suspicion and fear.
4. Risk-Reward
"If the potential rewards outweigh the risks, I can trust you."
Trust is influenced by the balance between potential rewards and risks in a relationship. When the potential benefits significantly outweigh the potential costs, trust becomes more likely. A favorable Risk-Reward ratio creates an environment where trust can flourish.
Notes
- Positive Risk-Reward ratios enable trust
- Asymmetry in rewards or risks creates power imbalances
- Perceived value of rewards matters more than absolute value
- Risk mitigation strategies can improve trust
5. Timeline / Repeated Interaction
"If we'll meet again, I can trust you today (playing long-term)."
Trust compounds over time through repeated interactions. When there's a future to the relationship, present actions have consequences that extend beyond the immediate moment. This creates accountability and builds trust.
Notes
- Trust compounds with repeated exposure
- Future accountability enables present trust
- Reputational costs increase with relationship duration
- Stable relationships create stable trust
- Short-term thinking undermines long-term trust
Summary
Trust emerges from specific conditions and principles. By intentionally creating these conditions, we can build trust more effectively and repair it when it's broken. The five core principles of trust—interest alignment, predictability, clarity, Risk-Reward balance, and repeated interaction—provide a foundation for understanding how trust works and how to build it.